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Advances in molecular genetics have revolutionized epidemiologic research. Epidemiologists are now able to combine the techniques of population genetics with more traditional risk factor research to formulate etiologic hypotheses. For example, from their studies in hypertension, Cooper and Kaufman have proposed a disease model involving the contributions of genes and environment and their possible interactions to explain disease rates in populations (1; Figure 1). Figure 1 Modelling the contribution of genes and the environment. Asterisks indicate interactions between factors
The resolution of these models, however, is likely to vary among populations. One reason for this variation is that environmental exposures involving putative environmental risk factors for disease are also likely to differ among populations. Comparisons between developing and developed nations offer a unique opportunity for applying this proposed model. Such studies provide a much wider diversity of environmental exposures than do studies of populations drawn solely from industrialized countries. In the latter, important risk factors may be missed because of their very pervasiveness (2). However, genetic variation also clearly influences disease risk. Research involving the human genome project suggests that, while there are few large differences in chromosome structure, there are many variations in small insertions and (or) deletions, in short tandem repeat sequences, and in single nucleotide differences within and among human populations. Any of these differences may influence disease risk, often acting in conjunction with environmental exposures (3–5). Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have proven to be an important tool in genetic studies of complex disease. SNPs are single base pair changes in the DNA sequence that can be found in either the coding or noncoding region of the DNA. Estimates suggest that an SNP may occur on average in every 1000 base pairs, resulting in as many as 3 million potentially identifiable SNPs (6–8). Variations in allele frequencies are also common among populations. Genetic studies in African populations have assumed a particular pertinence. Several investigators have now studied a wide variety of polymorphic loci to investigate the extent of human genetic diversity and to delineate the relations among modern human populations. Consistent with the anthropological hypotheses that posit an African origin for modern humans, the greatest genetic diversity occurs in sub-Saharan African populations (9–11). For example, it has been established that genetic variations among Nigerian groups appear to exceed the genetic variation among all European populations (12). Thus, epidemiologic research involving African populations, particularly when combined with parallel studies in developed countries, offers the opportunity to evaluate not only wide environmental but also wide genetic diversity in determining disease phenotypes in populations This paper describes the steps necessary to construct Cooper and Kaufman’s disease model (1) to study Alzheimer’s disease (AD), with particular reference to the results from our ongoing Indianapolis–Ibadan Dementia Project (I-IDP). These steps include the following: 1. A comparison of the rates of illness (preferably incidence rates) between the 2 populations. 2. A comparison of the frequency of putative risk factors, both genetic and environmental, between the populations. 3. An examination of the association of environmental risk factors with AD within each population. 4. An examination of the association of genetic risk factors with AD within each population, including identification of possible genetic or genetic–environmental interactions that may account for differences in the strength of genetic (or environmental) risk between populations, if it occurs. 5. An estimate of the potential significance of these risk factors in explaining the differences in illness rates observed between the populations. 6. Development of a risk factor model, which should account for observed phenotypic variation in the populations under study. The Indianapolis–Ibadan Dementia Project (I-IDP)Since 1992, research teams from Indiana University and the University of Ibadan have been collaborating on studies of the prevalence and incidence of dementia in elderly African Americans and Yoruba. The teams use identical methodology incorporating a 2-stage design. So far, they have conducted a prevalence study followed by 2 incidence studies at 2- and 5-year intervals. The I-IDP is supported by the National Institute on Aging and is ongoing. Comparison of Incidence Rates Between PopulationsThe following point should be emphasized: for the purpose of risk factor research, determining that illness rates in the study populations are similar may be just as significant as determining that they are different if the populations are exposed to different levels of putative environmental or genetic risk factors. Many potential methodological pitfalls arise in comparative studies involving populations in countries at different developmental levels and with different cultures. It is therefore essential that comparative studies be conducted by the same experienced group of investigators familiar with the social and cultural standards of the study populations. Further, these investigators must use test instruments that have been harmonized with adequate normative values. Harmonization is the process of translating and adapting test instruments to make them appropriate for the target population’s language and culture. Pilot studies are necessary to establish normative values for the target population. We have reported significantly lower prevalence rates of dementia in Yoruba (2.29%), compared with African Americans (8.24%), as well as similarly lower rates for AD in Yoruba (1.41%), compared with African Americans (6.24%) (13). Our prevalence rates for African Americans are approximately the same as those reported in the Canadian Study of Health and Aging (14). Our prevalence rates for Yoruba are at the lower end of previously reported rates. Prevalence rates, however, depend on factors additional to illness incidence rates. Between-site differences in life expectancy or survival of subjects with and without dementia could affect prevalence. Incidence rates (that is, the number of new cases occurring over a fixed period of time) give a better indication of true rates of illness than do prevalence rates. In our 5-year incidence study, the age-standardized incidence rates for both dementia and AD were significantly lower for Yoruba (1.35% and 1.15%, respectively) than for African Americans (3.24% and 2.52%, respectively) (15). It should be noted that, although prevalence and incidence rates were consistently lower among Yoruba, the association with age was identical in both sites; that is, prevalence rates in both sites roughly doubled with every 5 additional years of age. Our reported incidence rates for dementia and AD in African Americans are in the higher range of previously published incidence rates but are similar to other published rates from African American populations. The incidence rates for both dementia and AD for Yoruba are among the lowest of previously reported rates (16). In the single other study of incidence rates of AD involving a comparison of populations from a developing and developed countries (the Indo-US Cross National Dementia Epidemiology Study), the incidence rate for AD in an Indian population living in Ballabgarh, a rural district of Northern India, was one-sixth the rate found among elderly subjects living in the Monongahela Valley in Pennsylvania (17). It is tempting to propose from these studies that dementia rates are lower in developing countries or in more traditional societies than in developed countries. However, there are still far too few comparative studies available to make this generalization at this time. One rather surprising finding from our study is that the increased risk for mortality from dementia is similar in Yoruba and African Americans, despite very different availability of health care (Ibadan relative risk = 2.83, Indianapolis relative risk = 2.05) (18). Comparison of Frequency of Genetic and Environmental Risk Factors Between PopulationsGenetic Variations
Environmental Risk Factors There are many lifestyle differences between these 2 populations. For example, dietary intake varies widely: the elderly Yoruba in the Idikan wards consume a low-calorie, low-fat diet comprising mainly grains, roots, and tubers supplemented with a small amount of fish. Ascorbic acid levels have been reported to be relatively high among the Yoruba, probably because of their high consumption of peppers. The African-American diet is high in fat and sodium and low in fibre. These lifestyle differences are reflected in significant differences in biological and medical variables (Table 2)—variables often associated with risk of circulatory problems such as heart attack and stroke (2). Self-reports of diabetes and hypertension may underestimate the extent of these diseases in the elderly. An intensive medical evaluation conducted at the clinical assessment phase of our study in Ibadan reported a higher rate of hypertension (27.8%) than did self-reports; however, the rate was still considerably lower than the rates in African Americans (21). Blood pressure measurements showed only small differences between the 2 groups, but approximately 60% of the African Americans with diagnosed hypertension were taking antihypertensive medications. Examination of the Association Between Environmental Risk Factors and AD Within Each PopulationA risk factor, if valid, should modify disease change rates in both populations in the same manner. If the association between the risk factor and disease differs in the 2 populations, a careful investigation to understand the causes for this discrepancy should be undertaken. For example, consider education. Many studies report that a high level of education protects against the development of AD. In Ibadan, 85% of the subjects had received no education. In Indianapolis, the mean number of years of education for our cohort was 9.6. This finding is counterintuitive in view of the low rates of AD in the Yoruba. It may suggest that education level is not directly related to AD risk but, instead, serves as a marker for other influences in childhood. In the African Americans, for example, the combination of low education and childhood residence in the rural South increased the risk of AD (22). In the Yoruba, education was not significantly associated with AD rates. Increasing evidence suggests that vascular risk factors and vascular disease are not only associated with increased risk of stroke-related dementia but may also contribute to the development, progression, and clinical severity of AD (23–25). It is noteworthy that the Yoruba had a lower incidence of both vascular disease and vascular risk factors, including hypertension, than did the African Americans. Many studies, but not all, report that hyper- tension, particularly when occurring in middle age, is associated with an increased risk of late-onset AD (26–30). In our study, self-reports of hypertension were not associated with an increased risk for AD in either the Yoruba or the African Americans. However, both cross-sectional and longitudinal studies found that the use of antihypertensive medication in African Americans was associated with a reduced risk of dementia. Moreover, medication reduced the odds of incident cognitive impairment (that is, poor cognitive performance; cognitive impairment, not dementia; and dementia) by 38% (odds ratio 0.62; 95%CI, 0.45 to 0.84). Antihypertensive medication use was very rare in the Yoruba (31,32). Cholesterol levels were much lower in Yoruba than in African Americans, probably reflecting dietary differences. It has been suggested that lipid-related mechanisms may have a role in the pathogenesis of AD, and there is intriguing evidence that statins may reduce the risk of incidence of the condition (33). We were unable to confirm a protective effect for statins in our study. However, only a small number of African Americans (n = 30) were using them. There were great differences in diet between the Yoruba and the African Americans. Many reports have suggested a link between certain constituents of diet and a reduced risk of dementia (for example, high levels of vitamin E and low levels of fat) (34–36). While we anticipate that the Yoruba diet conforms more closely to the hypothetical ideal diet for preserving brain function than does the African–American diet, we do not have the detailed nutritional evaluation necessary to test this hypothesis. Nevertheless, a small pilot study of lymphoblastoid cell lines from 8 Yoruba subjects revealed little evidence of DNA damage, supporting the concept that the low-calorie, low-fat, high-antioxidant Yoruba diet produced less oxidative stress than did the high-calorie diets characteristic of Western countries (37). Examination of the Association Between Genetic Risk Factors and AD Within Each PopulationIn contrast to reports from other countries, but consistent with other studies of African Americans, we have found only a relatively weak association between the possession of the apoE e4 allele and AD in elderly African Americans; the association reached significance only for the e4 homozygotes (Tables 3 and 4). As in other reports, the apoE e2 allele shows a protective trend in African Americans (38). In the elderly Yoruba, by contrast, we can determine no significant association between AD and the e4 allele, either for a single or a double copy. In fact, in the Yoruba, only possession of the apoE e3 allele comes close to significance (39). Possible genetic mechanisms may explain both the lowered risk in African Americans and the absence of risk relating to the apoE e4 allele in the Yoruba. First, the apoE e4 alleles may not be the same from population to population. These alleles may differ by nucleotide changes, which may affect gene function, or by nucleotide changes in the noncoding regions, which may affect gene expression (40,41). Second, nucleotide changes in other genes that interact with apoE e4 (for example, apolipoprotein receptors) may affect apoE e4 function and, thus, affect how apoE e4behaves as a risk factor for AD. We are currently exploring all these possibilities (42). It is also possible that the lack of apoE e4 effect is due to gene–environment interaction. The differences in cholesterol levels between sites and the role that apoE plays in cholesterol processing make an apoE–cholesterol interaction, resulting in a differential AD risk, an obvious possibility. Two prior studies have reported a significant interaction between apoE and cholesterol in determining risk for AD (43,44). In fact, Notkola and colleagues suggested that cholesterol mediates some of the effects of apoE e4 on AD (44). In a preliminary study involving African Americans, we did detect a significant interaction between e4 and cholesterol. Increasing levels of cholesterol increased the risk of AD, but only in those subjects who did not possess an e4 allele (45). Carbo and Scacchi have proposed that apoE e4 may represent a “thrifty” allele (20). In early human environments, when meeting nutritional needs was uncertain and diets tended to be very low in fat, the e4 allele, which tends to conserve cholesterol, may have conferred an advantage to its possessor, thus ensuring its survival. Now, in an environment where obesity is a problem and diets are rich in fat, the original advantage associated with possession of the e4 allele may instead become a liability. Potential Significance of These Risk Factors in Explaining Differences in Illness Rates Between the Study PopulationsIt is likely that the lower incidence of vascular risk factors and vascular disease in the Yoruba, compared with the African Americans, accounts for a significant proportion of the differences in incidence rates of AD and dementia. However, our measurements of these factors are currently too imprecise to estimate accurately the effect size owing to them. In our continuing study, we are including biochemical assays of risk factors for vascular disease, such as lipid levels, 8-isoprostanes, homocysteine, insulin, and interleukin-6. Together with more comprehensive brain imaging, these assays will allow us to determine more precisely the extent and the effect of vascular disease on AD risk in the 2 populations. We did attempt to estimate the effect of the difference in risk associated with the possession of the apoE e4 allele. However, as Table 5 demonstrates, e4 accounted for only a small percentage of the variation for developing AD in the African-American population, something akin to the risk associated with years of education. Thus, it is unlikely that the apoE e4–related difference in risk accounts for much of the difference in AD incidence rates observed between the 2 populations. It is also possible (or probable) that other as-yet-unidentified genetic or environmental risk factors are associated with the phenotypic variation of AD observed between the populations. Development of a Risk Factor Model That Should Account for Observed Phenotypic Variation Between PopulationsIf we return now to Cooper and Kaufman’s disease model (1), our current knowledge could be characterized as follows: With regard to the genetic contribution to disease risk, if the relation to apoE e4 is weak in populations of African origin, it strongly suggests that other as-yet-unidentified genes may be involved in AD in these populations. Several possible candidates exist, but so far, none have been identified conclusively. Our studies and others strongly suggest that vascular risk factors play an important role in the genesis of AD and the other dementias. It is possible that these factors are influenced primarily by diet and that the constituents of the Yoruba diet (which is low-calorie, low-fat, and possibly, high in anti- oxidants) may lower such potential vascular risk factors as lipid levels and also lower levels of oxidative stress. However, vascular risk factors such as high blood pressure also have a significant genetic component, and genetic differences in association with environmental factors may account for the variations between the populations. Further, the possibility that other social or cultural influences may account for disease variation between the 2 populations should not be ruled out. The protective value of living in large, extended families offering much social interaction and support may be significant. Our exploration of gene × gene or gene × environment inter- action currently focuses on the attempt to explain the lowered risk associated with apoE e4 in the 2 populations, either through interaction with lipids or with other contributing genes, as described previously (Table 6). We hope our continuing work in this project will allow us to propose a more comprehensive explanation in the future. ConclusionInternational comparative studies, particularly those involving populations from developing and developed countries, offer a unique opportunity for applying the new information regarding population genetics to traditional AD risk factor research in a comprehensive model aiming to explain phenotypic variations in populations. By the year 2005, about 70% of all the elderly worldwide will be living in developing countries. The burden of caring for AD patients in these countries is likely to be staggering. We hope that, by including comparisons from the developed and developing worlds, models of AD etiology may be constructed that are more generalizable than those constructed primarily from investigation into Western populations.
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